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re:[QUOTE][B]下面引用由[U]li...
下面引用由[U]linmin0057[/U]发表的内容:
过去别人劝我生二胎,我坚决反对,甚至很反感,有点生气。可随着年龄的增加,时间的推移,想法不一样了。昨天我还到计生委咨询怎么拿指标呢。但我也是哭着回家的,对女儿的爱不知到底该怎样做才好。但有一个健康的孩...
What are your chances of having another child on the spectrum? This question comes up on our forum periodically, so I thought I'd gather information on this in one spot. If anyone else has statistics on this subject, let me know.
2 to 8%, according to an article
cited by the Center for Disease Control.
"The recurrence rate in siblings of affected children is 2% to 8%, much higher than the prevalence rate in the general population but much lower than in single-gene diseases." From the article "The Genetics of Autism" by Muhle et al., published in Pediatrics in 2004. You can read the entire article here:
Source: http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/cgi/content/full/113/5 /e472
The authors base those numbers on the following published work:
Gillberg C, Coleman M. The Biology of the Autistic Syndromes. 3rd ed. London, UK: Mac Keith Press, Distributed by Cambridge University Press; 2000
Chakrabarti S, Fombonne E. Pervasive developmental disorders in preschool children. JAMA. 2001;285 :3093 –3099[Abstract/Free Full Text]
Chudley AE, Gutierrez E, Jocelyn LJ, Chodirker BN. Outcomes of genetic evaluation in children with pervasive developmental disorder. J Dev Behav Pediatr. 1998;19 :321 –325[ISI][Medline]
The CDC cited Muhle's article here:
http://0-www.cdc.gov.mill1.sjlibrary.org/ncbddd/autism/overv iew.htm#_ftnref6
10% chance if the family has one autistic child,
50% chance if the family already has two autistic children,
according to an interview with a genetic researcher:
Lisa Jo Rudy of www.autism.about.com was lucky enough to get a personal interview with the Cold Spring Harbor researcher, Jonathan Sebat. Sebat said that the average risk for child number two having autism is 10%, but the risk is lower if it's the result of a spontaneous mutation rather than heredity. If you have two kids with autism, the risk is up to 50% for male third-borns.
Anyhow, anyone interested in reading more can go to:
http://autism.about.com/b/a/257919.htm (Part 1)
http://autism.about.com/od/causesofautism/a/newmutations.htm (Part 2)
28%, if you interpret the results
of an early diagnosis study
I also recently ran across a relevant study by Dr. Landa at Kennedy Krieger. That study investigated very early diagnosis (14 months), but you can also draw conclusions about risks because the study involved baby siblings of autistics.
Thirty of the 107 baby siblings ended up with an autism label, either at 14 months or later at age 3. That is 28% -- which seems significantly higher than 10%. Problem is, we don't know if any of these baby sibs came from families that already had more than one child diagnosed.
You can read Newsweek's report on that study here:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19588967/site/newsweek/page/0/
Sample topic on our forum:
http://www.autism-pdd.net/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=19546&am p;am p;KW=Newsweek&PN=0&TPN=1
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Norway Mom (mother of 2 sons who were born in 1998 and 2001. Both have atypical autism). |
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